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The paper trade log

A live system is not tested by looking at it. It is tested by running it and writing down what it decided before the outcome existed. The log is the only artefact that makes a claim falsifiable.

What you will see

The decision time is earlier than the outcome time. That order is the whole proof.

About 1 min of reading

Try It

Write one decision before its outcome

1

Log the decision with stamps

printf '2026-10-10T09:31 side=call size=0.05 model=v3 feed=2026-10-01\n' > /tmp/log.txt; cat /tmp/log.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
One line, four stamps. The time is what makes it a record and not a story.
2

Record the outcome later

printf '2026-10-10T16:00 pnl=-0.03\n' >> /tmp/log.txt; wc -l < /tmp/log.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
Two lines. The decision and the outcome are separate records of one trade.
3

Prove the decision came first

head -1 /tmp/log.txt | cut -c1-10; tail -1 /tmp/log.txt | cut -c1-16

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
The decision time is earlier than the outcome time. That order is the whole proof.

Data Flow

A decision to a replayable record
1 The system decides at a time
↓
2 The decision is written with its stamps
↓
3 The outcome arrives later
↓
4 The pair is read to compute the result
Why this works
Why paper comes before money

Paper costs nothing and measures the same decisions. The only reason to skip it is a reason that costs money.

The length of a paper run

Long enough that the cost is visible. A cost that is invisible at ten trades is visible at two hundred, and that is the minimum.

Examples

The decision is written before the result

A log written after the fact is a story. The timestamp of the decision is what makes it a record.

The log names the inputs

Model version, feed version, and size. Three stamps, and any past decision can be replayed from them.

A log that is never read is a log that is not there

The log has one reader: the person deciding the next change. If nobody reads it, the system is unmeasured.

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