Basic

Sizing with Kelly

Sizing is the decision with the largest effect on the outcome, and the one people get wrong by a factor of ten. Kelly is the fraction that maximises long run growth, and its formula is short enough to check by hand.

What you will see

0.050. The cap bound it here, and the cap is the reason the number is safe.

About 1 min of reading

Try It

Compute a capped size

1

Write edge and odds

printf 'edge 0.07\nodds 0.55\n' > /tmp/k.txt; cat /tmp/k.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
Two numbers between zero and one.
2

Compute the ratio

awk -F' ' '{s[$1]=$2} END {printf "%.3f\n", s["edge"]/s["odds"]}' /tmp/k.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
0.127. That is full Kelly, and it is the number nobody uses.
3

Halve and cap

awk -F' ' '{s[$1]=$2} END {v=s["edge"]/s["odds"]/2; printf "%.3f\n", (v>0.05)?0.05:v}' /tmp/k.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
0.050. The cap bound it here, and the cap is the reason the number is safe.

Data Flow

An estimate to a bounded size
1 The edge and odds are estimated
↓
2 The ratio is computed
↓
3 The ratio is halved for estimate error
↓
4 The result is capped and applied
Why this works
Why the size is a fraction of risk, not notional

Notional ignores curvature. A size in risk units is the same size across a book with different shapes.

What a zero edge gives

Zero size. Kelly is the function that makes refusing a decision, which is why it is preferred over a fixed stake.

Examples

The fraction is a ratio

Edge over odds. Both numbers are already known from the previous lesson, so the sizing has no new inputs.

Why full Kelly is not used

Full Kelly assumes the estimate is exact. Estimates are not exact, and the error is multiplied by the size.

The cap is the whole safety

Half Kelly with a cap is the standard because it is the version whose worst case is bounded.

Words this lesson uses

Each one is defined here on this site. Open the entry for the full definition and the other words it points at.

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