Basic

Implied against realized

Volatility has two meanings in the same sentence. One is what the market thinks will happen, priced into the option. The other is what happened, measured from the tape. The difference is the whole trade.

What you will see

0.03. A different window changed the claim, which is why the window is stamped.

About 1 min of reading

Try It

Print two volatilities with windows

1

Write both numbers with windows

printf 'implied 0.22 window=expiry\nrealized 0.15 window=20d\n' > /tmp/vol.txt; cat /tmp/vol.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
Two lines, each with a window. No window means the number is not comparable.
2

Compute the difference

awk '{s[$1]=$2} END {printf "%.2f\n", s["implied"]-s["realized"]}' /tmp/vol.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
0.07. That difference is the claim, and it is the only thing traded.
3

Change the window and recompute

printf 'implied 0.22 window=expiry\nrealized 0.19 window=200d\n' > /tmp/vol2.txt; awk '{s[$1]=$2} END {printf "%.2f\n", s["implied"]-s["realized"]}' /tmp/vol2.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
0.03. A different window changed the claim, which is why the window is stamped.

Data Flow

Two volatilities to one claim
1 A price gives the implied number
↓
2 History gives the realized number
↓
3 Both are stamped with a window
↓
4 The difference is the claim being traded
Why this works
Why the estimate is printed with its window

A number without a window is a number that cannot be argued with. The window is what makes it falsifiable.

The failure of a stale estimate

A realized estimate computed once and cached is a number that stops being about the market. Recompute on the same cycle as the data.

Examples

The two numbers are not comparable yet

Implied comes from a price, realized comes from history. They share a unit only after the same assumptions are applied to both.

Why the window matters

Realized volatility over ten days and over two hundred days are different facts. A strategy that uses one window chose a horizon.

The direction of the edge

Implied above realized is a market that expects more movement than history shows. That is a claim about the future, not the past.

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