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Stress testing a book

A book is measured on the market it is in. Stress testing is putting it in the markets it is not in, and reading the number that comes out before the market arrives instead of after.

What you will see

One line naming a position. A worst case with no driver is a number nobody can fix.

About 1 min of reading

Try It

Reprice a book on three days

1

Write the scenario days

printf '2024-04-22\n2020-03-16\n2021-05-07\n' > /tmp/days.txt; wc -l < /tmp/days.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
Three named days. Named, not invented, is what makes the result arguable.
2

Print the result per day

printf '2024-04-22 -40\n2020-03-16 -180\n2021-05-07 -60\n' > /tmp/s.txt; sort -k2 -n /tmp/s.txt | head -1

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
2020-03-16 -180. The worst day is the one the next decision is about.
3

Name the position that caused it

printf 'worst=2020-03-16 driver=short-put\n' > /tmp/why.txt; cat /tmp/why.txt

Before you run it, say out loud what it will print. Then open the answer.

What it prints
One line naming a position. A worst case with no driver is a number nobody can fix.

Data Flow

A book to a named worst case
1 The scenario days are chosen
↓
2 The book is repriced on each day
↓
3 Each result is stamped with its day
↓
4 The worst day names the position to cut
Why this works
Why the stress run is done before sizing

Sizing first and stressing after is sizing twice. The stress number is an input to the size, and inputs come before decisions.

The limit of a scenario set

The set contains what happened. It cannot contain what will happen, which is why the set is small and the budget is generous.

Examples

The scenarios are named days

Not invented numbers. Named days that happened, so the result can be argued with by pointing at the same day.

Why the worst scenario is the deliverable

The worst number names the position to cut. A table of numbers names nothing, and a name is the thing that can be acted on.

A scenario that never hurts is a wrong scenario

A scenario that no book reacts to is a scenario that is not a scenario. It is removed from the set, the same rule an eval case follows.

Words this lesson uses

Each one is defined here on this site. Open the entry for the full definition and the other words it points at.

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